A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
