Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
